There are a couple of sites I think could be useful to have tutorials on: I wanted to improve the topic page, but wasn't sure what its best use is, though tutorials / forum posts on each one like you are doing are a great addition. So, if you've tried to do tasks of this nature, keep an eye out! Tomorrow: Guesstimate, a tool for quantifying intuitions.Īs a final request, we’d also really appreciate any feedback you have about the tools or the posts, or if you have any suggestions for tools you think deserve to have posts made about them! Learn to quantitatively forecast with a short feedback loop (pastcasting).Record a 3 minute video summarising your progress instead of having an hour-long meeting with your supervisor (loom).Estimate the success of an ongoing project providing access to birth control for monitoring and evaluation (squiggle).Calculate the expected value of trialling meditating for 2 weeks ( guesstimate).Compare theories of what kinds of interventions might be useful to reduce biorisk (excalidraw, guesstimate).View an aggregate prediction for when we might expect AGI before deciding which area of AI to work in, and how (metaculus).Summarise a forum post in video form (loom).Summarise a forum post visually (excalidraw).Get feedback on your model of the impact of a grant to provide malaria bed nets (guesstimate).To make this a little more concrete than 'collaborative truth seeking', here are some examples of tasks EAs might want to do which could benefit from the use of one of these tools: (The specific tools were chosen via Chana generating many possibilities from friends, Twitter and her own use, then asking for feedback on an epistemics slack, and primarily picking the most easy-to-use-seeming ones in each category.) What kinds of tasks are we talking about? Forecasting tools and Prediction Markets: Why and How.To help people find tools which might be useful for a given project, there's also a wiki page with short summaries of tools. Sometimes posts will consist primarily of links elsewhere, if good tutorials already exist. There'll be a forum post each day for the next 7 week days, each consisting of video and text tutorials for either one complex tool or a handful of smaller tools. I've collated tutorials (where they exist) and written or recorded them (where they don't) which I think are useful for EAs.
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